Tennis · M15 Zamora · 13/11, 20:00
Prediction: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Jesse Flores
Team pages: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes · Jesse Flores
Prediction summary
Winner
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Jesse Flores
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
9-1 (W-L)
Jesse Flores
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 1620 · Jesse Flores 1538
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Jesse Flores | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes (rating 1620 vs 1538).
- Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Jesse Flores | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-7.1 | 11.2-9.6 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 51% | 34.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Matias Soto M15 Zamora |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/11 | Alan Sau Franco M15 Zamora |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/11 | Yannik Alvarez M15 Zamora |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/11 | Lorenzo Claverie M25 Guadalajara |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/11 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez M25 Guadalajara |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/11 | Maxwell McKennon M25 Guadalajara |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/11 | Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi M25 Guadalajara |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/10 | Adrian Oetzbach M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 22/10 | Andrea De Marchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Gabriele Bosio M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Jesse Flores
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Blu Baker M15 Zamora |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 11/11 | Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero M15 Zamora |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/11 | Ryan Cozad M15 Zamora |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/11 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez M25 Guadalajara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Stefan Cooper M25 Guadalajara |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 03/11 | Tarun Karra M25 Guadalajara |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/10 | Frazier Rengifo M15 Mazatlan |
0-2 | 6-10 | L |
| 27/10 | Alan Sau Franco M15 Mazatlan |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 18/10 | Franco Ribero Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexandr Binda M25 Yinchuan |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Jesse Flores?
Our model gives 76% to Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.