Tennis · M15 Zamora · 11/11, 18:00
Prediction: Matias Soto vs Alexander Bernard
Team pages: Matias Soto · Alexander Bernard
Prediction summary
Winner
Matias Soto
Alexander Bernard
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Matias Soto
5-5 (W-L)
Alexander Bernard
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matias Soto
0–1
Alexander Bernard
(1 last)
- 23 Jul0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matias Soto 1474 · Alexander Bernard 1568
| Matias Soto | Alexander Bernard | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Bernard (rating 1474 vs 1568).
- Head-to-head: Matias Soto 0–1 Alexander Bernard (1).
Statistics
| Matias Soto | Alexander Bernard | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.1 | 1.4-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-8.8 | 10.4-7.8 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 63.4% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
H2H · Matias Soto 0 – 1 Alexander Bernard (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matias Soto 0–1 Alexander Bernard
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/23 Challenger Salinas | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matias Soto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Oswaldo Alejandro Reyes Tirado M15 Zamora |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/11 | Frazier Rengifo M25 Guadalajara |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/10 | Frazier Rengifo M15 Mazatlan |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Joaquin Guilleme M15 Mazatlan |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/10 | Mauricio Schtulmann Gasca M15 Mazatlan |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/10 | Lance A L Castelan M15 Mazatlan |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/10 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Alexander Bernard
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Joaquin Bianchi M15 Zamora |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/11 | Blaise Bicknell M15 Pembroke |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Volodymyr Gurenko M15 Pembroke |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/10 | Max Dahlin M15 Ann Arbor |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Gustavo Albieri M15 Ann Arbor |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Matisse Farzam M15 Ann Arbor |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/09 | John Hallquist Lithen M15 Columbia |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Max Stenzer M15 Columbia |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/09 | Jakub Kroslak UTR Pro Miami · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/09 | Salvador Price UTR Pro Miami · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matias Soto vs Alexander Bernard?
Our model gives 62% to Matias Soto, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.