Tennis · M25 Heraklion · 03/11, 13:30
Prediction: Nikita Mashtakov vs Lorenzo Angelini
Team pages: Nikita Mashtakov · Lorenzo Angelini
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikita Mashtakov
Lorenzo Angelini
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nikita Mashtakov
6-4 (W-L)
Lorenzo Angelini
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikita Mashtakov 1585 · Lorenzo Angelini 1512
| Nikita Mashtakov | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikita Mashtakov (rating 1585 vs 1512).
- Nikita Mashtakov is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Nikita Mashtakov | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-9.8 | 10.3-10.6 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 61.9% | 59.4% |
| Break % | 55.3% | 54.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikita Mashtakov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Benjamin Pietri M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/10 | Jiri Cizek M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/10 | Kristijan Juhas M15 Bol · ~Clay |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 16/10 | Noah Lopez M15 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/10 | Henry Best M15 Bol · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Aljaz Jeran M15 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/10 | Noah Lopez M15 Sibenik |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10 | Charles Bertimon M15 Sibenik |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg M15 Sibenik |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 01/10 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Sibenik |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Lorenzo Angelini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Matteo Gribaldo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/10 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 21/10 | Arthur Bellegy M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/10 | Raffaele Ciurnelli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 11/10 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko Challenger Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Gianluca Cadenasso Challenger Bari · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 28/09 | Garrett Johns Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 23/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikita Mashtakov vs Lorenzo Angelini?
Our model gives 59% to Nikita Mashtakov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.