Tennis · ATP Vienna · 31/10, 15:00
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
7-3 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
3–6
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(9 last)
- 14 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 01 Oct0-2 8-13L
- 12 Jul1-3 18-24L
- 17 Mar0-2 7-13L
- 17 Nov0-2 8-12L
- 09 Sept3-1 22-16W
- 14 Jul0-3 9-18L
- 20 Mar0-2 5-12L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1695 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1630
| Daniil Medvedev | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1695 vs 1630).
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 41.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 3–6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (9).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-8.7 | 14.5-10.8 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.6% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.7
Over 22.5: 55% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.80
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 3 – 6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 3–6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10/24 ATP Beijing | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/07/24 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 17/03/24 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/11/23 ATP World Tour Finals | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/09/23 US Open | 3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 14/07/23 Wimbledon | 0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 20/03/23 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/10 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 23/10 | Terence Atmane ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Taylor Fritz Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 23-20 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 54% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.