Tennis · ATP Vienna · 30/10, 13:00
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Daniil Medvedev
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Daniil Medvedev
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
6-4 (W-L)
Daniil Medvedev
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adrian Mannarino
3–5
Daniil Medvedev
(8 last)
- 12 Jun0-2 10-13L
- 28 Sept0-2 8-13L
- 06 Jul0-3 12-19L
- 15 Jun2-1 16-12W
- 11 Jun0-2 10-14L
- 23 Mar0-2 3-12L
- 06 Jul3-2 27-23W
- 08 Aug2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1563 · Daniil Medvedev 1621
| Adrian Mannarino | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1563 vs 1621).
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 10.4 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Adrian Mannarino 3–5 Daniil Medvedev (8).
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.5 | 13.3-9.5 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 10.4 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 78.7% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.7
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 45% · 1.83
H2H · Adrian Mannarino 3 – 5 Daniil Medvedev (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adrian Mannarino 3–5 Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/25 ATP Hertogenbosch | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09/24 ATP Beijing | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/07/23 Wimbledon | 0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 15/06/23 ATP Hertogenbosch | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 11/06/22 ATP Hertogenbosch | 0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 23/03/19 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/07/18 Wimbledon | 3-2 | 27-23 | W |
| 08/08/17 ATP Montreal | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/10 | Ignacio Buse ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 25/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/10 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 29/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/10 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 23/10 | Terence Atmane ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model gives 70% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.