Tennis · ATP Vienna · 30/10, 20:00
Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
3-7 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Berrettini
3–3
Alex De Minaur
(6 last)
- 24 Oct0-2 7-13L
- 25 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 07 Jul3-0 18-11W
- 02 Jan0-2 9-13L
- 19 Jun2-0 12-8W
- 05 Aug0-2 11-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1497 · Alex De Minaur 1610
| Matteo Berrettini | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1497 vs 1610).
- Alex De Minaur is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.4 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-13.9 | 13.3-11.1 |
| Aces | 12.4 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.6% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 30.4% | 48.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.90
H2H · Matteo Berrettini 3 – 3 Alex De Minaur (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Berrettini 3–3 Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/25 ATP Vienna | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/03/25 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07/23 Wimbledon | 3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 02/01/22 ATP Cup | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/06/21 ATP Queens | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/08/17 Challenger Segovia | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 03/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Learner Tien ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 66% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.