Tennis · ATP Vienna · 30/10, 15:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
7-3 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tommy Paul
2–7
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(9 last)
- 06 Sept0-3 11-18L
- 25 Jan0-3 15-20L
- 03 Jun0-3 5-18L
- 01 Aug0-2 9-13L
- 09 Jul1-3 15-23L
- 17 Aug1-2 16-19L
- 12 Aug2-1 16-12W
- 28 Mar0-2 8-12L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1553 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1612
| Tommy Paul | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1553 vs 1612).
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 41.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul 2–7 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (9).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.8-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.4 | 15.5-12.4 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.3
Over 21.5: 72% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 28% · 2.00
H2H · Tommy Paul 2 – 7 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tommy Paul 2–7 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/26 US Open | 0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 25/01/26 Australian Open | 0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 03/06/25 French Open | 0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 01/08/24 Olympics 2024 - Men | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07/24 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 17/08/23 ATP Cincinnati | 1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 12/08/23 ATP Toronto | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 28/03/23 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Taylor Fritz Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 23-20 | W |
| 09/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 67% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.