Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 30/10, 20:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Nick Hardt
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Nick Hardt
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Nick Hardt
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Nick Hardt
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1537 · Nick Hardt 1485
| Valerio Aboian | Nick Hardt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1537 vs 1485).
- Note: Nick Hardt makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Nick Hardt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.2 | 10.4-11.7 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 6 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 23/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 22/10 | Matias Soto Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Facundo Mena Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 05/10 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Nick Hardt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/10 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 20/10 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 07/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 25/08 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Jakub Filip Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Nick Hardt?
Our model gives 56% to Nick Hardt, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.