Tennis · ATP Vienna · 29/10, 15:00
Prediction: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Nikoloz Basilashvili · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
24.7Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nikoloz Basilashvili
9-1 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nikoloz Basilashvili
0–2
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(2 last)
- 03 May0-2 8-13L
- 03 Jun0-3 10-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1600 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1595
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Nikoloz Basilashvili dominates on serve: 9.4 aces and 42.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Nikoloz Basilashvili 0–2 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (2).
Statistics
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.9-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-10.4 | 16-12.8 |
| Aces | 9.4 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 80.1% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.2
Over 20.5: 77% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 23% · 1.90
H2H · Nikoloz Basilashvili 0 – 2 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nikoloz Basilashvili 0–2 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/22 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/06/21 French Open | 0-3 | 10-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/10 | Marin Cilic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/10 | Adam Walton ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Taylor Fritz Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 23-20 | W |
| 09/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 06/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 68% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.