Tennis · ATP Vienna · 29/10, 17:00
Prediction: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Arthur Fery · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fery
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fery
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Arthur Fery
0–1
Lorenzo Musetti
(1 last)
- 01 Sept0-3 11-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fery 1480 · Lorenzo Musetti 1573
| Arthur Fery | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Musetti (rating 1480 vs 1573).
- Head-to-head: Arthur Fery 0–1 Lorenzo Musetti (1).
Statistics
| Arthur Fery | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.7 | 14.5-12.4 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.5
Over 21.5: 67% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 33% · 1.90
H2H · Arthur Fery 0 – 1 Lorenzo Musetti (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arthur Fery 0–1 Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/26 US Open | 0-3 | 11-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fery
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Borna Gojo ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 07/10 | Marin Cilic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 19/09 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Lorenzo Musetti US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 29/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 21/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 03/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 01/09 | Arthur Fery US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 22/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 66% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.