Tennis · ATP Vienna · 29/10, 13:30
Prediction: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
Team pages: Cameron Norrie · Daniil Medvedev
Prediction summary
Winner
Cameron Norrie
Daniil Medvedev
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Cameron Norrie
4-6 (W-L)
Daniil Medvedev
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Cameron Norrie
1–5
Daniil Medvedev
(6 last)
- 26 Sept0-2 7-12L
- 27 May3-2 25-25W
- 09 May0-2 6-12L
- 25 Mar0-2 6-13L
- 07 Aug0-2 5-13L
- 08 Oct0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cameron Norrie 1472 · Daniil Medvedev 1640
| Cameron Norrie | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 72% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1472 vs 1640).
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 10.2 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Daniil Medvedev is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Cameron Norrie 1–5 Daniil Medvedev (6).
Statistics
| Cameron Norrie | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-13.1 | 12.9-8.9 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 10.2 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 79.7% |
| Break % | 41% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.4
Over 20.5: 67% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 33% · 1.83
H2H · Cameron Norrie 1 – 5 Daniil Medvedev (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cameron Norrie 1–5 Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/25 ATP Beijing | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05/25 French Open | 3-2 | 25-25 | W |
| 09/05/25 ATP Rome | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/03/24 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 07/08/22 ATP Los Cabos | 0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 08/10/19 ATP Shanghai | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cameron Norrie
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 16/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Dino Prizmic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 05/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 23/10 | Terence Atmane ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model gives 78% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.