Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 28/10, 16:00
Prediction: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Alan Magadan
Team pages: Carlos Maria Zarate · Alan Magadan
Prediction summary
Winner
Carlos Maria Zarate
Alan Magadan
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Carlos Maria Zarate
6-4 (W-L)
Alan Magadan
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlos Maria Zarate 1505 · Alan Magadan 1566
| Carlos Maria Zarate | Alan Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alan Magadan (rating 1505 vs 1566).
Statistics
| Carlos Maria Zarate | Alan Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-9.7 | 11.9-9.9 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 47.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlos Maria Zarate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Franco Ribero Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/09 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Felix Corwin M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Valentino Grippo M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Giovanni Branchetti M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Alan Magadan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Tristan McCormick Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/10 | Mario Andre Galarraga Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/10 | Daniel Salazar Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Juan Miguel Bolivar Idarraga Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Nicolas Bruna Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 21/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Alex Hernandez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 19/08 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/08 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlos Maria Zarate vs Alan Magadan?
Our model gives 54% to Carlos Maria Zarate, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.