Tennis · ATP Vienna · 29/10, 13:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Luciano Darderi
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Luciano Darderi
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
6-4 (W-L)
Luciano Darderi
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tommy Paul
2–1
Luciano Darderi
(3 last)
- 10 May1-2 11-15L
- 07 Aug2-0 13-10W
- 28 Jul2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1549 · Luciano Darderi 1509
| Tommy Paul | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tommy Paul (rating 1549 vs 1509).
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul 2–1 Luciano Darderi (3).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11 | 12.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 24.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.4
Over 21.5: 67% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 33% · 1.90
H2H · Tommy Paul 2 – 1 Luciano Darderi (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tommy Paul 2–1 Luciano Darderi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 ATP Rome | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 07/08/24 ATP Montreal | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07/24 Olympics 2024 - Men | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/10 | James Duckworth ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 05/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi?
Our model gives 67% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.