Tennis · ATP Vienna · 28/10, 13:00
Prediction: Learner Tien vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Learner Tien · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Learner Tien
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Learner Tien
6-4 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Learner Tien 1520 · Alex De Minaur 1602
| Learner Tien | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1520 vs 1602).
- Alex De Minaur is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Learner Tien | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.4 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-14.4 | 13.3-10.8 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 39.2% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.1
Over 22.5: 64% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 36% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Learner Tien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Zachary Svajda ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 01/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Flavio Cobolli Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-29 | L |
| 06/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Learner Tien vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 57% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.