Tennis · ATP Vienna · 26/10, 15:00
Prediction: Tomas Machac vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Tomas Machac · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Machac
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Machac
4-6 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tomas Machac
0–1
Alex De Minaur
(1 last)
- 09 Apr1-2 9-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Machac 1489 · Alex De Minaur 1590
| Tomas Machac | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1489 vs 1590).
- Alex De Minaur is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Tomas Machac 0–1 Alex De Minaur (1).
Statistics
| Tomas Machac | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.3 | 13.1-11.4 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 42.7% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.1
Over 21.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 42% · 1.83
H2H · Tomas Machac 0 – 1 Alex De Minaur (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tomas Machac 0–1 Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/25 ATP Monte Carlo | 1-2 | 9-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Machac
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/10 | Zangar Nurlanuly ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/10 | Liam Draxl Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 15/10 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/10 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Machac vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 69% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.