Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 27/10, 16:00
Prediction: Franco Roncadelli vs Valerio Aboian
Team pages: Franco Roncadelli · Valerio Aboian
Prediction summary
Winner
Franco Roncadelli
Valerio Aboian
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Franco Roncadelli
4-6 (W-L)
Valerio Aboian
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Franco Roncadelli
2–2
Valerio Aboian
(4 last)
- 13 Oct2-1 17-10W
- 04 Apr1-2 13-17L
- 04 Nov2-0 13-7W
- 20 Mar0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Franco Roncadelli 1486 · Valerio Aboian 1537
| Franco Roncadelli | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1486 vs 1537).
Statistics
| Franco Roncadelli | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-11.2 | 11.4-12.2 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 59.9% | 64.4% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 37% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Franco Roncadelli 2 – 2 Valerio Aboian (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Franco Roncadelli 2–2 Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/26 Challenger Santa Cruz | 2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 04/04/25 ITF M25 Chacabuco | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/11/22 ITF M15 Santa Cruz | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/03/22 ITF M25 Medellin | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Franco Roncadelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 06/10 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/08 | Elias Ymer US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Jakub Nicod Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 23/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 22/10 | Matias Soto Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Facundo Mena Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 05/10 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 21/09 | Matias Franco Descotte Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Franco Roncadelli vs Valerio Aboian?
Our model gives 54% to Franco Roncadelli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.