Tennis · ATP Vienna · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Team pages: Jurij Rodionov · Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Jurij Rodionov
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jurij Rodionov
8-2 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jurij Rodionov
0–1
Nikoloz Basilashvili
(1 last)
- 30 Mar1-2 13-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jurij Rodionov 1533 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1615
| Jurij Rodionov | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikoloz Basilashvili (rating 1533 vs 1615).
- Jurij Rodionov dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 43% break avg.
- Nikoloz Basilashvili dominates on serve: 10.1 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jurij Rodionov 0–1 Nikoloz Basilashvili (1).
Statistics
| Jurij Rodionov | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-11.8 | 14.2-11.3 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 10.1 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 80.4% |
| Break % | 43% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.8
Over 23.5: 55% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 45% · 1.80
H2H · Jurij Rodionov 0 – 1 Nikoloz Basilashvili (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jurij Rodionov 0–1 Nikoloz Basilashvili
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/26 ATP Bucharest | 1-2 | 13-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 12-19 | L |
| 19/09 | Zizou Bergs Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Gauthier Onclin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Frederico Ferreira Silva US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Kimmer Coppejans US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/10 | Marin Cilic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/10 | Adam Walton ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 59% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.