Tennis · ATP Vienna · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Lorenzo Musetti · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Musetti
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Musetti
4–4
Frances Tiafoe
(8 last)
- 22 Aug0-2 11-14L
- 03 Jun3-1 23-15W
- 15 Aug0-2 5-12L
- 16 Jun1-2 15-19L
- 15 May2-1 17-14W
- 18 Mar2-1 15-15W
- 07 Oct1-2 12-15L
- 23 Sept2-1 17-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Musetti 1570 · Frances Tiafoe 1594
| Lorenzo Musetti | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 42.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Musetti | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 2.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-12 | 17.8-16 |
| Aces | 5 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.2% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 54.7% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.8
Over 23.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 31% · 1.83
H2H · Lorenzo Musetti 4 – 4 Frances Tiafoe (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Musetti 4–4 Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/06/25 French Open | 3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 15/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06/23 ATP Stuttgart | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 15/05/23 ATP Rome | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/03/21 ATP Acapulco | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/10/20 Challenger Parma | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 23/09/20 Challenger Forli | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 21/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 03/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 01/09 | Arthur Fery US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 22/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 09/10 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Kei Nishikori ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 08/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 06/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 52% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.