Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 25/10, 19:00
Prediction: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Tristan McCormick
Team pages: Bernardo Munk Mesa · Tristan McCormick
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Tristan McCormick
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Bernardo Munk Mesa
4-6 (W-L)
Tristan McCormick
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernardo Munk Mesa 1464 · Tristan McCormick 1520
| Bernardo Munk Mesa | Tristan McCormick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tristan McCormick (rating 1464 vs 1520).
- Tristan McCormick dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 45.5% break avg.
- Note: Bernardo Munk Mesa makes many double faults (4.4/match).
- Note: Tristan McCormick makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Bernardo Munk Mesa | Tristan McCormick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-12.7 | 11.7-11.6 |
| Aces | 4 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.1% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Mateus Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/10 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Mario Arce Fernandez M25 Gijon |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Madrid |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Juan Ignacio Gallego M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Carles Cordoba M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Tristan McCormick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Jose Pereira Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Quito · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/10 | Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Dakotah Bobo M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/10 | Lucas Andrade da Silva M15 Quito · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Victor Bini M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 09/10 | Alex Hernandez M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 08/10 | Sergio Luis Hernandez Ramirez M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/10 | Tyler Mercier M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/09 | Garrett Johns M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Tristan McCormick?
Our model gives 50% to Bernardo Munk Mesa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.