Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 25/10, 21:00
Prediction: Miguel Tobon vs Federico Zeballos
Team pages: Miguel Tobon · Federico Zeballos
Prediction summary
Winner
Miguel Tobon
Federico Zeballos
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Miguel Tobon
3-7 (W-L)
Federico Zeballos
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Tobon 1508 · Federico Zeballos 1466
| Miguel Tobon | Federico Zeballos | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miguel Tobon (rating 1508 vs 1466).
- Note: Miguel Tobon makes many double faults (5.1/match).
- Note: Federico Zeballos makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Miguel Tobon | Federico Zeballos | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-12.6 | 10.1-12.8 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 3 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 63.5% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 16.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Tobon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 23/10 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 21/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/10 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/09 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 10/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Koray Kirci Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Federico Zeballos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Lucio Ratti Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 11/10 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 10/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Arklon Huertas del Pino Cordova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Andres Urrea Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Tobon vs Federico Zeballos?
Our model gives 72% to Miguel Tobon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.