Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 27/10, 16:00
Prediction: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien
Team pages: Nicolas Jarry · Hugo Dellien
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Jarry
Hugo Dellien
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Jarry
5-5 (W-L)
Hugo Dellien
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Jarry
3–1
Hugo Dellien
(4 last)
- 30 May3-0 18-10W
- 03 Dec2-0 14-12W
- 22 Nov1-2 14-16L
- 08 Oct2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Jarry 1503 · Hugo Dellien 1563
| Nicolas Jarry | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Dellien (rating 1503 vs 1563).
- Nicolas Jarry dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 40% break avg.
- Hugo Dellien is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Nicolas Jarry 3–1 Hugo Dellien (4).
Statistics
| Nicolas Jarry | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.6 | 11.9-9.6 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.2% | 64.1% |
| Break % | 40% | 64.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
H2H · Nicolas Jarry 3 – 1 Hugo Dellien (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Jarry 3–1 Hugo Dellien
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/23 French Open | 3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/12/21 Challenger Sao Paulo | 2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/11/21 Challenger Brasilia | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 08/10/21 Challenger Santiago | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Jarry
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 14/04 | Elmer Moller Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 11/04 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 10/04 | Nerman Fatic Challenger Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/03 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Miami · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Adam Walton Challenger Cap Cana · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/03 | Francesco Maestrelli ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 24/02 | Dino Prizmic ATP Santiago · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Hugo Dellien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/10 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/10 | Luis Guto Miguel Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/10 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Bernardo Munk Mesa Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 22/09 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Pedro Vives Marcos Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien?
Our model gives 52% to Hugo Dellien, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.