Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 27/10, 16:00
Prediction: Nick Hardt vs Juan Manuel La Serna
Team pages: Nick Hardt · Juan Manuel La Serna
Prediction summary
Winner
Nick Hardt
Juan Manuel La Serna
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Nick Hardt
4-6 (W-L)
Juan Manuel La Serna
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nick Hardt 1425 · Juan Manuel La Serna 1530
| Nick Hardt | Juan Manuel La Serna | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Manuel La Serna (rating 1425 vs 1530).
- Juan Manuel La Serna is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Nick Hardt makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Nick Hardt | Juan Manuel La Serna | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 22% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.7 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-12.9 | 12.6-11 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 68% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nick Hardt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 07/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 25/08 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Jakub Filip Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/08 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Juan Manuel La Serna
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 21/10 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Tulln · Clay |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Filip Cristian Jianu Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 04/09 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 03/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nick Hardt vs Juan Manuel La Serna?
Our model gives 61% to Juan Manuel La Serna, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.