Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 27/10, 16:00
Prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Federico Coria
Team pages: Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Federico Coria
Prediction summary
Winner
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Federico Coria
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
2-8 (W-L)
Federico Coria
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
4–2
Federico Coria
(6 last)
- 01 Mar2-0 12-7W
- 04 Feb2-0 13-9W
- 14 Nov2-0 13-6W
- 22 Aug0-2 4-12L
- 24 Sept2-0 12-8W
- 11 May0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1433 · Federico Coria 1407
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Federico Coria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli 4–2 Federico Coria (6).
Statistics
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Federico Coria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.8 | 0.5-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-13.6 | 8.9-12.4 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 34.2% | 44.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 4 – 2 Federico Coria (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 4–2 Federico Coria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/25 ATP Santiago | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/02/24 Challenger Piracicaba | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/11/23 Challenger Montevideo | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 22/08/23 US Open | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/09/19 Challenger Buenos Aires | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/05/15 ITF Argentina F5 | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 08/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Federico Coria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Lucio Ratti Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Taro Daniel ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Bonding Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Federico Coria?
Our model gives 66% to Camilo Ugo Carabelli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.