Tennis · ATP Vienna · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
6-4 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tommy Paul
1–5
Andrey Rublev
(6 last)
- 11 Oct0-2 10-14L
- 14 Oct0-2 8-13L
- 12 Oct2-1 16-15W
- 04 May1-2 14-18L
- 23 Sept1-2 9-15L
- 02 Aug0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1540 · Andrey Rublev 1495
| Tommy Paul | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tommy Paul (rating 1540 vs 1495).
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 42.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul 1–5 Andrey Rublev (6).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12.4 | 13.5-13.3 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 10.5 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 19.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.1
Over 23.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 42% · 1.83
H2H · Tommy Paul 1 – 5 Andrey Rublev (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tommy Paul 1–5 Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/23 ATP Shanghai | 0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 14/10/22 ATP Gijon | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/10/21 ATP Indian Wells | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 04/05/21 ATP Madrid | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/09/20 ATP Hamburg | 1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 02/08/18 ATP Washington | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-21 | W |
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 01/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-24 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 58% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.