Tennis · ATP Vienna · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Flavio Cobolli vs Grigor Dimitrov
Team pages: Flavio Cobolli · Grigor Dimitrov
Prediction summary
Winner
Flavio Cobolli
Grigor Dimitrov
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Flavio Cobolli
3-7 (W-L)
Grigor Dimitrov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Flavio Cobolli 1481 · Grigor Dimitrov 1476
| Flavio Cobolli | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Grigor Dimitrov dominates on serve: 8.9 aces and 44.3% break avg.
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Flavio Cobolli | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.7 | 1.3-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-16 | 14.2-14.5 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 8.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 75% |
| Break % | 36% | 44.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.9
Over 23.5: 69% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 31% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Flavio Cobolli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 23/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 22/10 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 13-24 | L |
| 03/09 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Francisco Comesana US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-23 | W |
| 22/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Grigor Dimitrov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Holger Rune Davis Cup |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Elmer Moller Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 26/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Lorenzo Giustino US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Flavio Cobolli vs Grigor Dimitrov?
Our model gives 57% to Flavio Cobolli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.