Tennis · ATP Vienna · 25/10, 13:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley
Team pages: Lorenzo Sonego · Jacob Fearnley
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Sonego
Jacob Fearnley
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Sonego
5-5 (W-L)
Jacob Fearnley
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Sonego 1479 · Jacob Fearnley 1552
| Lorenzo Sonego | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1479 vs 1552).
- Jacob Fearnley is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Sonego | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-14.4 | 12-8.9 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 35.2% | 49.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.3
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 19/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 28/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/09 | James Duckworth ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 02/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 27/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Clement Chidekh ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/10 | George Loffhagen Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley?
Our model gives 61% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.