Tennis · ATP Vienna · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Karen Khachanov · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Karen Khachanov
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Karen Khachanov
0–6
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(6 last)
- 19 Feb1-2 14-18L
- 13 May1-2 14-16L
- 30 Sept0-2 7-13L
- 03 May0-2 9-13L
- 22 Jul0-2 2-12L
- 29 May0-3 9-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karen Khachanov 1535 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1590
| Karen Khachanov | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1535 vs 1590).
- Head-to-head: Karen Khachanov 0–6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (6).
Statistics
| Karen Khachanov | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-12.2 | 16.5-12.6 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 81% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 39.8% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.8
Over 21.5: 80% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 20% · 2.00
H2H · Karen Khachanov 0 – 6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karen Khachanov 0–6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/26 ATP Doha | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/05/25 ATP Rome | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 30/09/24 ATP Beijing | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/05/23 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/07/22 ATP Hamburg | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/05/22 French Open | 0-3 | 9-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 22/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Taylor Fritz Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 23-20 | W |
| 09/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 06/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 04/09 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 71% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.