Tennis · ATP Vienna · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi
Team pages: Luciano Darderi · Matteo Arnaldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Luciano Darderi
Matteo Arnaldi
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luciano Darderi
4-6 (W-L)
Matteo Arnaldi
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luciano Darderi
1–1
Matteo Arnaldi
(2 last)
- 18 May2-1 14-11W
- 21 Mar1-2 14-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luciano Darderi 1499 · Matteo Arnaldi 1456
| Luciano Darderi | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luciano Darderi (rating 1499 vs 1456).
Statistics
| Luciano Darderi | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.4 | 1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-13.4 | 12.6-14.6 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 21.6% | 40.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.3
Over 23.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Luciano Darderi 1 – 1 Matteo Arnaldi (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luciano Darderi 1–1 Matteo Arnaldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/24 Challenger Turin | 2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 21/03/22 Challenger Zadar | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luciano Darderi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | James Duckworth ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 05/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Matteo Arnaldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Bernard Tomic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 31/08 | James Duckworth US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 15/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model gives 53% to Luciano Darderi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.