Tennis · ATP Vienna · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Daniil Medvedev
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Daniil Medvedev
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
4-6 (W-L)
Daniil Medvedev
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Merida Aguilar
0–1
Daniil Medvedev
(1 last)
- 01 Jul1-3 16-22L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1524 · Daniil Medvedev 1662
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1524 vs 1662).
- Daniil Medvedev is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniel Merida Aguilar 0–1 Daniil Medvedev (1).
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-11.3 | 12.8-8.9 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 10.8 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 80.6% |
| Break % | 44.9% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.1
Over 21.5: 65% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 35% · 2.00
H2H · Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 1 Daniil Medvedev (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Merida Aguilar 0–1 Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/26 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 16-22 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Alejandro Tabilo Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrey Rublev US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Marton Fucsovics US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 23/10 | Terence Atmane ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model gives 74% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.