Tennis · ATP Vienna · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
2-8 (W-L)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1469 · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1444
| Matteo Berrettini | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1.2-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-15 | 13.4-13.6 |
| Aces | 11.6 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 77.6% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 24.5% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.2
Over 22.5: 71% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 29% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 03/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 10/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 02/09 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-15 | W |
| 30/08 | Vit Kopriva US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?
Our model gives 58% to Matteo Berrettini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.