Tennis · ATP Vienna · 24/10, 13:00
Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Titouan Droguet
Team pages: Joel Schwaerzler · Titouan Droguet
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Titouan Droguet
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
5-5 (W-L)
Titouan Droguet
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1496 · Titouan Droguet 1578
| Joel Schwaerzler | Titouan Droguet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Titouan Droguet (rating 1496 vs 1578).
- Titouan Droguet dominates on serve: 9.1 aces and 41.3% break avg.
- Titouan Droguet is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Titouan Droguet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.8-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-11.3 | 15.6-13.1 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 9.1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 38% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.5
Over 21.5: 67% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 33% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Federico Cina ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 03/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Maxime Chazal Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 03/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Max Basing Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Titouan Droguet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 27/09 | Harold Mayot Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Mark Lajal Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Borna Gojo Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/09 | Karl Poling Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 19/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Borna Gojo Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 17/09 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/09 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Titouan Droguet?
Our model gives 71% to Titouan Droguet, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.