Tennis · ATP Vienna · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac
Team pages: Corentin Moutet · Tomas Machac
Prediction summary
Winner
Corentin Moutet
Tomas Machac
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Corentin Moutet
5-5 (W-L)
Tomas Machac
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Corentin Moutet
1–0
Tomas Machac
(1 last)
- 21 Mar2-1 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Corentin Moutet 1503 · Tomas Machac 1484
| Corentin Moutet | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Corentin Moutet 1–0 Tomas Machac (1).
Statistics
| Corentin Moutet | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-13.4 | 11.9-11.2 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 49.3% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.7
Over 22.5: 55% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.90
H2H · Corentin Moutet 1 – 0 Tomas Machac (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Corentin Moutet 1–0 Tomas Machac
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 ATP Miami | 2-1 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Corentin Moutet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/10 | Felix Balshaw ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 05/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/07 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 22/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Tomas Machac
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/10 | Zangar Nurlanuly ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/10 | Liam Draxl Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 15/10 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/10 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac?
Our model gives 53% to Tomas Machac, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.