Tennis · ATP Vienna · 24/10, 11:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1551 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1506
| Jacob Fearnley | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1551 vs 1506).
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-9.8 | 12.2-12.8 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 50.6% | 40.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Clement Chidekh ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/10 | George Loffhagen Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Martin Landaluce US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-22 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 10/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yi Zhou ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 58% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.