Tennis · ATP Vienna · 24/10, 12:30
Prediction: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego
Team pages: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · Lorenzo Sonego
Prediction summary
Winner
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Lorenzo Sonego
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
6-4 (W-L)
Lorenzo Sonego
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1544 · Lorenzo Sonego 1447
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (rating 1544 vs 1447).
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.6 | 13.8-14.8 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 47.7% | 33.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 24.5
Over 24.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 52% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Valentin Royer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 28/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Jie Cui ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 19/09 | Ignacio Buse Davis Cup |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 28/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/09 | James Duckworth ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 02/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 27/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego?
Our model gives 58% to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.