Tennis · M15 Ithaca · 22/10, 16:00
Prediction: Rodrigo Fernandes vs Mikael Arseneault
Team pages: Rodrigo Fernandes · Mikael Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
Rodrigo Fernandes
Mikael Arseneault
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Rodrigo Fernandes
7-3 (W-L)
Mikael Arseneault
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rodrigo Fernandes 1571 · Mikael Arseneault 1478
| Rodrigo Fernandes | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rodrigo Fernandes (rating 1571 vs 1478).
- Rodrigo Fernandes is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rodrigo Fernandes | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-7.2 | 11.5-11.7 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 2 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.9% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 32.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rodrigo Fernandes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Eric David Verdes M15 Ithaca |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Eric David Verdes UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Gregory Bernadsky UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/10 | Brendan McDonald UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/09 | Nicola Ion UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Rushil Khosla UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/09 | Jack Casciato UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Philip Henning M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Izan Almazan Valiente M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Mikael Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Matt Kuhar M15 Ithaca |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/10 | William Jansen M15 Lexington |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Matisse Farzam M15 Champaign |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Edward Winter Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Niels Peter Van Noord M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rodrigo Fernandes vs Mikael Arseneault?
Our model gives 66% to Rodrigo Fernandes, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.