Tennis · M25 Sarreguemines · 22/10, 10:00
Prediction: Matt Ponchet vs Arthur Nagel
Team pages: Matt Ponchet · Arthur Nagel
Prediction summary
Winner
Matt Ponchet
Arthur Nagel
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Matt Ponchet
3-7 (W-L)
Arthur Nagel
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matt Ponchet 1443 · Arthur Nagel 1511
| Matt Ponchet | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Nagel (rating 1443 vs 1511).
Statistics
| Matt Ponchet | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (3) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.5 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-11.6 | 12.6-11.2 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matt Ponchet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Theo Herrmann M25 Sarreguemines |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Mickael Kaouk M25 Plaisir |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Marcus Walters Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 31/07 | Conor Gannon M15 Dublin |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Ammar Elamin M15 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Melvin Kumar M15 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Marcel Zielinski Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Gianluca Carlini M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Robin Bertrand M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Arthur Nagel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Aaron Gabet M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/10 | Loann Massard Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 26/09 | Flynn Thomas M15 Forbach |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Timeo Trufelli M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Paul Theate M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/09 | Remy Dugardin M15 Forbach |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Maximilian Figl M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Yassine Dlimi M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 03/09 | Diogo Morais M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matt Ponchet vs Arthur Nagel?
Our model gives 71% to Arthur Nagel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.