Tennis · M25 Sarreguemines · 23/10, 10:00
Prediction: Calvin Mueller vs Arthur Nagel
Team pages: Calvin Mueller · Arthur Nagel
Prediction summary
Winner
Calvin Mueller
Arthur Nagel
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Calvin Mueller
9-1 (W-L)
Arthur Nagel
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Calvin Mueller 1557 · Arthur Nagel 1517
| Calvin Mueller | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Calvin Mueller (rating 1557 vs 1517).
Statistics
| Calvin Mueller | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.3 | 12.7-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Calvin Mueller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Florent Lagarrigue M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/10 | Mika Petkovic M15 Offenbach |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 16/10 | Flynn Thomas M15 Offenbach |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/10 | Jelle Sels M15 Offenbach |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Yannik Kelm M15 Offenbach |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/10 | Mac Visser M15 Offenbach |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/10 | Adrien Gobat M15 Rodez |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Fons Van Sambeek M15 Forbach |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Kacper Knitter M15 Szczawno |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Sebastian Tejerina M15 Szczawno |
2-0 | 8-3 | W |
Arthur Nagel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Matt Ponchet M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/10 | Aaron Gabet M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/10 | Loann Massard Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 26/09 | Flynn Thomas M15 Forbach |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Timeo Trufelli M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Paul Theate M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/09 | Remy Dugardin M15 Forbach |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Maximilian Figl M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Yassine Dlimi M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Calvin Mueller vs Arthur Nagel?
Our model gives 54% to Arthur Nagel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.