Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 22/10, 11:00
Prediction: Matej Dodig vs Marco Cecchinato
Team pages: Matej Dodig · Marco Cecchinato
Prediction summary
Winner
Matej Dodig
Marco Cecchinato
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matej Dodig
9-1 (W-L)
Marco Cecchinato
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matej Dodig
1–0
Marco Cecchinato
(1 last)
- 01 Apr2-1 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matej Dodig 1616 · Marco Cecchinato 1472
| Matej Dodig | Marco Cecchinato | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matej Dodig (rating 1616 vs 1472).
- Matej Dodig is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Matej Dodig 1–0 Marco Cecchinato (1).
Statistics
| Matej Dodig | Marco Cecchinato | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 90% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-8.2 | 11.6-12.1 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 34.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Matej Dodig 1 – 0 Marco Cecchinato (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matej Dodig 1–0 Marco Cecchinato
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/25 Challenger Barletta | 2-1 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matej Dodig
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Joao Domingues Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/10 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 16/10 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/10 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/10 | Elmer Moller Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 10/10 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Miguel Damas Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/10 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Marco Cecchinato
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/10 | Pedro Vives Marcos Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Olle Wallin Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 17/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 15/09 | Henri Squire Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Laslo Djere Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Nick Hardt Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Vilius Gaubas US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matej Dodig vs Marco Cecchinato?
Our model gives 69% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.