Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 23/10, 11:00
Prediction: Elmer Moller vs Henrique Rocha
Team pages: Elmer Moller · Henrique Rocha
Prediction summary
Winner
Elmer Moller
Henrique Rocha
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Elmer Moller
6-4 (W-L)
Henrique Rocha
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elmer Moller
2–0
Henrique Rocha
(2 last)
- 01 Oct2-1 18-11W
- 09 Nov2-0 13-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elmer Moller 1539 · Henrique Rocha 1555
| Elmer Moller | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Elmer Moller 2–0 Henrique Rocha (2).
- Note: Elmer Moller makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Elmer Moller | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.1 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-12 | 13-9.8 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 50.4% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
H2H · Elmer Moller 2 – 0 Henrique Rocha (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elmer Moller 2–0 Henrique Rocha
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/25 Challenger Braga | 2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 09/11/24 Challenger Lima | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elmer Moller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/10 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/10 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 11/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 10/10 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/10 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/10 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Iliyan Radulov Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Henrique Rocha
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/10 | Dali Blanch Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 04/10 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 02/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/09 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/09 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elmer Moller vs Henrique Rocha?
Our model gives 56% to Henrique Rocha, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.