Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 23/10, 11:00
Prediction: Marco Trungelliti vs Matej Dodig
Team pages: Marco Trungelliti · Matej Dodig
Prediction summary
Winner
Marco Trungelliti
Matej Dodig
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marco Trungelliti
5-5 (W-L)
Matej Dodig
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marco Trungelliti 1547 · Matej Dodig 1625
| Marco Trungelliti | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matej Dodig (rating 1547 vs 1625).
- Matej Dodig is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Marco Trungelliti | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.9-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-12.3 | 13.2-8.1 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.1% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 55.4% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marco Trungelliti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/10 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 16/10 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 15/10 | Milos Karol Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/10 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 07/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Martin Landaluce ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 19/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Matej Dodig
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 20/10 | Joao Domingues Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/10 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 16/10 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/10 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/10 | Elmer Moller Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 10/10 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Miguel Damas Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marco Trungelliti vs Matej Dodig?
Our model gives 57% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.