Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 23/10, 14:00
Prediction: Alexander Ritschard vs Sumit Nagal
Team pages: Alexander Ritschard · Sumit Nagal
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Ritschard
Sumit Nagal
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Ritschard
8-2 (W-L)
Sumit Nagal
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Ritschard
0–2
Sumit Nagal
(2 last)
- 06 Oct1-2 15-14L
- 09 Jun1-2 11-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Ritschard 1621 · Sumit Nagal 1471
| Alexander Ritschard | Sumit Nagal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Ritschard (rating 1621 vs 1471).
- Alexander Ritschard is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Ritschard 0–2 Sumit Nagal (2).
Statistics
| Alexander Ritschard | Sumit Nagal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 90% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-7 | 9.6-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 81.2% | 60.5% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 25.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Alexander Ritschard 0 – 2 Sumit Nagal (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Ritschard 0–2 Sumit Nagal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/25 Challenger Valencia | 1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 09/06/24 Challenger Heilbronn | 1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Ritschard
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/10 | Andrej Martin Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/10 | Joao Dinis Silva Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/10 | Alejandro Moro Canas M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/10 | Ryan Nijboer M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 02/10 | Miguel Damas M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Samuel Arauzo Martinez M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/09 | Iannis Miletich M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/09 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Sumit Nagal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/10 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/10 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Yibing Wu Asian Games |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Seong Chan Hong Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Soonwoo Kwon Davis Cup |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Hyeon Chung Davis Cup |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 25/08 | Arthur Gea US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Ritschard vs Sumit Nagal?
Our model gives 64% to Alexander Ritschard, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.