Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 23/10, 17:00
Prediction: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin
Team pages: Andrea Pellegrino · Svyatoslav Gulin
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Pellegrino
Svyatoslav Gulin
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Pellegrino
3-7 (W-L)
Svyatoslav Gulin
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Pellegrino 1450 · Svyatoslav Gulin 1583
| Andrea Pellegrino | Svyatoslav Gulin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Svyatoslav Gulin (rating 1450 vs 1583).
- Svyatoslav Gulin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Andrea Pellegrino | Svyatoslav Gulin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-12.5 | 11.3-7.2 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 34.7% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Pellegrino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/08 | Zizou Bergs Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Svyatoslav Gulin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Andrej Martin Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/10 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/10 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Takeru Yuzuki Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/10 | Gianluca Cadenasso Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Pedro Rodenas Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/10 | Tilen Kovac Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/09 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin?
Our model gives 50% to Andrea Pellegrino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.