Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 21/10, 10:00
Prediction: Ginevra Montebruno vs Matilde Paoletti
Team pages: Ginevra Montebruno · Matilde Paoletti
Prediction summary
Winner
Ginevra Montebruno
Matilde Paoletti
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Ginevra Montebruno
3-7 (W-L)
Matilde Paoletti
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ginevra Montebruno 1472 · Matilde Paoletti 1542
| Ginevra Montebruno | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 6% | 94% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matilde Paoletti (rating 1472 vs 1542).
- Note: Ginevra Montebruno makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Ginevra Montebruno | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.8-11.3 | 11.8-9.7 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 50% | 57.3% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ginevra Montebruno
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Shiyu Ye W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/09 | Beatrice Stagno W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Greta Petrillo W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Emilie Chablaix W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/07 | Kate Gardiner W50 Dublin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Alice Soulie UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Nikola Hlavata UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Mia Horvit UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 08/07 | Megan Heuser UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Victoria Borodulina UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Matilde Paoletti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Jessica Pieri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 15/10 | Chiara Fornasieri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/10 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/10 | Eva Bennemann W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Francesca Gandolfi W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Daria Yesypchuk W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/09 | Maria Toma W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/09 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Diletta Cherubini W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ginevra Montebruno vs Matilde Paoletti?
Our model gives 79% to Matilde Paoletti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.