Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 21/10, 11:00
Prediction: Thiago Monteiro vs Henrique Rocha
Team pages: Thiago Monteiro · Henrique Rocha
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Monteiro
Henrique Rocha
Estimated games
24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Monteiro
7-3 (W-L)
Henrique Rocha
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Thiago Monteiro
0–1
Henrique Rocha
(1 last)
- 07 Mar1-2 10-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Monteiro 1539 · Henrique Rocha 1552
| Thiago Monteiro | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Thiago Monteiro 0–1 Henrique Rocha (1).
Statistics
| Thiago Monteiro | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-13.3 | 12.9-10 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 47.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5
H2H · Thiago Monteiro 0 – 1 Henrique Rocha (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thiago Monteiro 0–1 Henrique Rocha
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Challenger Brasilia | 1-2 | 10-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Monteiro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 05/10 | Elmer Moller Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 22/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 20/09 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/09 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/09 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/09 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Henrique Rocha
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Dali Blanch Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 04/10 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 02/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/09 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/09 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Monteiro vs Henrique Rocha?
Our model gives 58% to Henrique Rocha, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.