Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 20/10, 11:00
Prediction: Matej Dodig vs Joao Domingues
Team pages: Matej Dodig · Joao Domingues
Prediction summary
Winner
Matej Dodig
Joao Domingues
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Matej Dodig
8-2 (W-L)
Joao Domingues
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matej Dodig 1620 · Joao Domingues 1464
| Matej Dodig | Joao Domingues | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matej Dodig (rating 1620 vs 1464).
- Matej Dodig is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matej Dodig | Joao Domingues | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-9.1 | 10.7-12.4 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.6% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 50.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matej Dodig
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 16/10 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/10 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/10 | Elmer Moller Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 10/10 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Miguel Damas Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/10 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexander Zverev Davis Cup |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Joao Domingues
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Vasco Leote Prata Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Andrej Martin Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Michael Geerts Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 22/09 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Setubal |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 16/09 | Julien Penzlin M25 Sintra |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 18/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 15/07 | Goncalo Marques M15 Castelo Branco |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matej Dodig vs Joao Domingues?
Our model gives 80% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.