Tennis · M25 Sarreguemines · 21/10, 10:00
Prediction: Thijs Boogaard vs Matteo Martineau
Team pages: Thijs Boogaard · Matteo Martineau
Prediction summary
Winner
Thijs Boogaard
Matteo Martineau
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Thijs Boogaard
3-7 (W-L)
Matteo Martineau
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thijs Boogaard 1463 · Matteo Martineau 1572
| Thijs Boogaard | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Martineau (rating 1463 vs 1572).
- Matteo Martineau is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Thijs Boogaard | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-10.6 | 14.2-11.8 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 9.1 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 45% | 38.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thijs Boogaard
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Henry Bernet Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/10 | Timeo Trufelli Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/10 | Philip Henning Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 27/09 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Lucas Renard M25 Falun |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Love Nyqvist M25 Falun |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 09/09 | Sergey Petrov M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Conor Gannon M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Zian Vanderstappen M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | Karim Mabrouk M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Matteo Martineau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Mika Brunold Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/10 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/10 | Etienne Donnet Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Clement Tabur Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 24/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 22/09 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 21/09 | Justin Boulais Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/09 | Cesar Bouchelaghem Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thijs Boogaard vs Matteo Martineau?
Our model gives 67% to Matteo Martineau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.