Tennis · M25 Sarreguemines · 21/10, 10:00
Prediction: Matt Ponchet vs Theo Herrmann
Team pages: Theo Herrmann
Prediction summary
Winner
Matt Ponchet
Theo Herrmann
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Matt Ponchet
3-7 (W-L)
Theo Herrmann
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matt Ponchet 1424 · Theo Herrmann 1502
| Matt Ponchet | Theo Herrmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Theo Herrmann (rating 1424 vs 1502).
- Theo Herrmann is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Matt Ponchet makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Matt Ponchet | Theo Herrmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (4) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.6 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-11.7 | 10.1-9.2 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 5 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 34% | 35% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matt Ponchet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Mickael Kaouk M25 Plaisir |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Marcus Walters Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 31/07 | Conor Gannon M15 Dublin |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Ammar Elamin M15 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Melvin Kumar M15 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Marcel Zielinski Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Gianluca Carlini M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Robin Bertrand M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Filip Peliwo M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Theo Herrmann
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Amar Tahirovic M15 Offenbach |
1-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 11/10 | Dominik Matic M15 Offenbach |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/09 | Flynn Thomas M15 Forbach |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/09 | Niklas Schell M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Adan Freire Da Silva M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Kasra Rahmani M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Roan Jones M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Pierre Delage M15 Strasbourg |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/07 | Yannick Castelnuovo M15 Strasbourg |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Julius Hacker M15 Strasbourg |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matt Ponchet vs Theo Herrmann?
Our model gives 50% to Matt Ponchet, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.