Tennis · W35 Sydney · 20/10, 02:30
Prediction: Natsuho Arakawa vs Lucia Gale
Team pages: Natsuho Arakawa · Lucia Gale
Prediction summary
Winner
Natsuho Arakawa
Lucia Gale
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Natsuho Arakawa
5-5 (W-L)
Lucia Gale
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Natsuho Arakawa 1440 · Lucia Gale 1552
| Natsuho Arakawa | Lucia Gale | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucia Gale (rating 1440 vs 1552).
- Lucia Gale is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Natsuho Arakawa makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Natsuho Arakawa | Lucia Gale | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-11.5 | 10.7-7.7 |
| Aces | 3 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 5 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.3% | 57.9% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 69.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Natsuho Arakawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Nagi Hanatani W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Rira Kosaka W50 Nanao |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 15/09 | Remika Ohashi W35 Kyoto |
1-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 02/09 | Clarissa Blomqvist W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Eloise Newberry W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Amy Stevens W15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 30/07 | Ya-Yi Yang W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Julie Adele Bedard W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/07 | Destanee Aiava W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Chia Yi Tsao W15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Lucia Gale
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Naomi McKenzie W35 Wagga Wagga |
1-2 | 10-9 | L |
| 27/08 | Belle Thompson UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Bridget Mihulka UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Sara Mickoska UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Christina Dodaj UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Kaylah McPhee UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Ranxi Yu UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Arabelle Mancini UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Juliet Santitto UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Amelia Zylberman UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Natsuho Arakawa vs Lucia Gale?
Our model gives 57% to Natsuho Arakawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.