Tennis · W35 Sydney · 30/10, 00:00
Prediction: Hikaru Sato vs Erika Sema
Team pages: Hikaru Sato · Erika Sema
Prediction summary
Winner
Hikaru Sato
Erika Sema
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Hikaru Sato
7-3 (W-L)
Erika Sema
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hikaru Sato
2–2
Erika Sema
(4 last)
- 19 May2-0 13-10W
- 09 Mar2-0 12-7W
- 05 Feb1-2 10-16L
- 28 Nov0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hikaru Sato 1621 · Erika Sema 1488
| Hikaru Sato | Erika Sema | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hikaru Sato (rating 1621 vs 1488).
- Hikaru Sato is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Erika Sema makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Hikaru Sato | Erika Sema | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-8.3 | 11.2-11.4 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 58.4% |
| Break % | 51.6% | 50.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Hikaru Sato 2 – 2 Erika Sema (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hikaru Sato 2–2 Erika Sema
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 W100 Takasaki | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/03/26 W75 Kyoto | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/02/24 ITF W75 Burnie | 1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 28/11/23 ITF W60 Gold Coast | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hikaru Sato
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Renee Alame W35 Sydney |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/10 | Merel Hoedt W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/10 | I Wen Wan W35 Sydney |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 24/10 | Mio Mushika W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/10 | Naiktha Bains W35 Sydney |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/10 | Nanari Katsumi W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 21/10 | Shrivalli Rashmikaa Bhamidipaty W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Mutsumi Uemura W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Nana Onozawa W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/10 | Naho Sato W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Erika Sema
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Eva Lopez W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/10 | Miho Kuramochi W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/10 | Mio Mushika W35 Sydney |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Jizelle Sibai W35 Sydney |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 06/09 | Vaishnavi Adkar W50 Guiyang |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Jia-Jing Lu W75 Tianjin |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Eunhye Lee W35 Southaven |
1-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Maria F Navarro Oliva W35 Southaven |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/07 | Sara Saito W75 Lexington |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 29/07 | Mckenna Schaefbauer W75 Lexington |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hikaru Sato vs Erika Sema?
Our model gives 74% to Hikaru Sato.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.