Tennis · M25 Tamworth · 20/10, 02:30
Prediction: Jeremy Beale vs Luca Connaughton
Team pages: Jeremy Beale · Luca Connaughton
Prediction summary
Winner
Jeremy Beale
Luca Connaughton
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Jeremy Beale
7-3 (W-L)
Luca Connaughton
0-10 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jeremy Beale
3–0
Luca Connaughton
(3 last)
- 17 Jun2-0 12-1W
- 04 May2-1 13-12W
- 07 Apr2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jeremy Beale 1586 · Luca Connaughton 1372
| Jeremy Beale | Luca Connaughton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 23% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeremy Beale (rating 1586 vs 1372).
- Jeremy Beale is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jeremy Beale 3–0 Luca Connaughton (3).
Statistics
| Jeremy Beale | Luca Connaughton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 0% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 0.3-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-9.5 | 5.9-12.1 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 55.2% |
| Break % | 53.6% | 50.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
H2H · Jeremy Beale 3 – 0 Luca Connaughton (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jeremy Beale 3–0 Luca Connaughton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/26 UTR Pro Sydney | 2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 04/05/26 UTR Pro Melbourne | 2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 07/04/26 UTR Pro Melbourne | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jeremy Beale
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Derek Pham M25 Darwin |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Tai Leonard Sach M25 Darwin |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/09 | David Qariaqus M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Arjun Mehrotra UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Haruto Ishikawa UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/09 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Oscar Andrews UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Jacob Cairncross UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/09 | Shaheed Alam UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Cody Atkinson UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Luca Connaughton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Sam Ryan Ziegann M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Adrian Arcon M25 Darwin |
2-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 29/09 | Reece Falck M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Daniel Jankoski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikita Volonski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Jeremy Beale UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Ashton Mcleod UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Jonas Hahn UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Casey Ambler UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jeremy Beale vs Luca Connaughton?
Our model gives 85% to Jeremy Beale, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.